Evaluation on the Resignation of Member Number 1

Mahathir follows tradition of ex-PMs . First, it was Dato' Onn Jaafar whose ideology was ahead of his time, Tunku Abdul Rahman after the infamous May 13 1969 tragedy and Tun Hussein Onn with the exception of Tun Abdul Razak who never had the chance because of his early death.

No one really see this coming but these days many things become unpredictable like the weather after the Malaysian 12th General Election. Would it be appropriate to say that the weather is more predictable?

UMNO Baru member number 1 and number 2 (his wife) are leaving the party that he founded while encouraging his supporters or those who think the current leadership is weak to do the same. The announcement was made during Wesak Day, a national holiday.

In order to start things off, it should be mentioned that Barisan Nasional had its best showing in Malaysian history during the tenure of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the year 2004. In 2008, UMNO and BN suffered their historical worst showing, with Pak Lah helming the leadership.

Allegedly, certain quarters speculate that the resignation was due to an implication in the Lingam tape scandal. This allegation comes without proper substantiation and could be easily dismissed. Quite the contrary, judging on what is being written by the man himself, whose self-penned blogger nickname "Che Det", in his blog post Pengumuman Keluar dari UMNO. Accordingly, it is an issue of no-confidence on the leadership of Pak Lah, who was chosen by, ironically, none other than Tun Dr. M himself.

Instead of focusing on the messenger, it would be best to place the concentration on the message delivered and related possibilities:

1) Will UMNO suffer a "split" similar to a crisis 2 decades ago ? Remember the 1988 Tengku Razaleigh and Semangat 46 ....

2) If there is a "split", will Malaysia get a new government? Anwar Ibrahim, the de facto leader of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) had previously mentioned of potential party hoppers from BN components into PR before Tun Dr. M's resignation. Will the "split" speed up and consummate this eventuality?

3) Will Mukhriz, the parliamentarian of Jerlun (for a brief 2 months plus), the son of Tun Dr. M follow his father's footsteps if the son share the same sentiments? If Mukhriz refuses to emulate, will this affect Tun Dr. M's "influence" credibility vice versa in opting for such step?

4) Judging by the current situation, a big number of people deserting the UMNO ship would create a more obvious possibility for changing the government. There could be members who are afraid of this situation, causing them to stay instead of resigning due to many reasons or particularly vested interests. Even if the number of resignation is not big, there could still be people leaving in a slower pace. Of course, there are also the Sabahans and their political will. What would one do when one is desperate? Will there be an EGM? Could this be a carefully-planned political move from many angles to drum up support for Tengku Razaleigh within UMNO?

5) Malaysiakini posted an article titled Shahrir: Prepare for another general election . A large number of Malaysians voted Opposition (Pakatan Rakyat components) with the mindset of giving a chance for these parties to administer the nation. Although that, it should not be forgotten that there is also a substantial number of people who voted Opposition because they dislike the current leadership of BN in priority. Now, bundle all this with the possibility of UMNO members following Tun in abandonning ship. If there really is another general election, will these members form a "New Party"? Would a large number of votes swing to this "New Party"?

Or, perhaps, the least likeliest of all ....

6) All in all, could it be that the response is minimal that nothing drastic would actually happen?

If point number 6 does not happen, point number 2, 4 or 5 could happen. It is not hard to guess who will be the most disadvantaged in a chess game of checkmates and conquests. That person is definitely not Tun Dr. M.

All of the points above are fictional and inconclusive. My imagination runs wild. However, truth is sometimes stranger than fiction. There are times, the most likeliest thing that we expect to happen would not happen vice versa.

Since Malaysian politics after PRU12 is more unpredictable than the weather, everyone can consider lying back, relax and enjoy "Drama Minggu Ini" provided the economy, security and livelihood are still good.

This article is published in Malaysia Today - http://www.malaysia-today.net/2008/content/view/7719/84/